Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 95239.654054 100414.301517 105585.850519 111138.654277 116928.546249 122784.120190 129150.202029
2025-10-26 86086.410327 93944.274979 102014.644335 110912.323534 120436.238371 130314.099057 141322.852843
2025-11-02 79940.384724 89641.564754 99820.767077 111276.540927 123788.148056 137016.134259 152036.866334
2025-11-09 74949.147941 85995.380918 97796.310361 111306.593511 126309.755771 142423.419653 161001.476199
2025-11-16 71650.609479 83861.993565 97111.854459 112505.271578 129843.621315 148714.653288 170751.825929
2025-11-23 68084.230527 81158.700189 95548.381451 112491.027888 131820.714220 153112.456298 178262.770800
2025-11-30 65924.555933 79884.234822 95444.919950 113985.411507 135379.351207 159194.328577 187608.534014
2025-12-07 63727.048300 78422.943565 95001.027369 114974.143788 138265.283743 164445.783132 195971.913958
2025-12-14 61185.421586 76426.061349 93817.411783 114994.282776 139938.494633 168237.485231 202613.328068
2025-12-21 59037.027158 74788.762769 92959.102345 115306.284191 141877.148268 172281.816583 209515.359689
2025-12-28 57800.695083 74174.564971 93250.622311 116925.770323 145316.162411 178056.204209 218442.628910
2026-01-04 56462.184137 73369.845195 93257.400181 118156.540262 148259.479235 183233.194046 226675.366943
2026-01-11 54892.151951 72238.348250 92839.819147 118860.425590 150577.321934 187700.065564 234130.873170
2026-01-18 53162.647559 70847.445701 92053.089736 119070.070422 152267.098215 191405.249414 240687.847633
2026-01-25 51679.428681 69708.168339 91525.594180 119553.242663 154256.494858 195453.095060 247659.472091
2026-02-01 50076.929766 68360.494486 90688.045714 119606.062827 155681.557286 198796.665194 253775.249943
2026-02-08 49151.479936 67840.064912 90853.045727 120881.993080 158600.477690 203955.899443 262118.126363
2026-02-15 47679.120739 66564.895908 90022.272227 120867.867099 159885.917696 207099.731973 267995.539085
2026-02-22 47013.240087 66312.240780 90468.800657 122452.958763 163165.470358 212705.003039 276927.663252
2026-03-01 46145.672074 65763.406388 90510.009493 123501.492417 165759.374660 217465.161265 284836.719871
2026-03-08 44874.013013 64640.036552 89774.859469 123522.857538 167028.841062 220565.861137 290686.872078
2026-03-15 43794.107272 63739.739537 89299.875668 123853.697016 168673.597284 224128.042802 297120.574435
2026-03-22 43343.599563 63669.770402 89898.009095 125570.803532 172095.679781 229937.326359 306405.509219